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Cover Story · The Power Bill desk

The Kilowatt That Counts

Grid operators no longer credit a power plant at its nameplate. Priced per kilowatt they will actually count, a restarted reactor beats a new gas plant, solar-plus-storage falls from second-cheapest to seventh, and the two cheapest firm options are the two a new buyer cannot get before 2031.

The Ecliptic · Issue No. 013 · October 8, 2026

96% · 75% · 7%
of installed capacity that PJM's 2029/30 class ratings count for a nuclear unit, a gas combined cycle and tracking solar
$2,000–4,000
per accredited kilowatt for a nuclear restart, against $3,200–3,470 for a new combined cycle at quoted prices (The Power Bill estimates)
2nd → 7th
solar-plus-storage's rank among nine options when capital cost moves from nameplate to accredited kilowatts in PJM
2031
delivery year for a gas turbine reserved now; all three US nuclear restarts are already contracted

The basis

A megawatt on the nameplate is not the unit a grid operator buys.

05,00010,00015,00020,000Four-hour battery1,895–2,561Nuclear restart1,996–4,023Combined cycle, quoted3,200–3,467Wind + storage4,604–6,566Nuclear uprate5,274–6,173Enhanced geothermal6,111–7,778Solar + storage5,967–8,600Small modular reactor10,281–19,312New large reactor12,812–18,302Capital cost, $ per kW of accredited capacity (PJM 2029/30 ratings)
Capital cost per kilowatt of accredited capacity, shown as ranges, on PJM's 2029/30 class ratings. All values are The Power Bill estimates from cited capital costs; enhanced geothermal assumes 90% accreditation because no market publishes a class rating for it, and the hybrids use the effective PJM values Lazard reports. Not illustrative.

PJM's ratings for the 2029/30 capacity auction count a nuclear unit at **96%** of installed capacity, a gas combined cycle at **75%**, a four-hour battery at **57%**, onshore wind at **37%** and tracking solar at **7%**. Dividing capital cost by those factors reorders the list.

  • A restart and a quoted combined cycle tie on nameplate at a midpoint near $2,500/kW. Per accredited kilowatt the restart is about 22% cheaper: $2,604 against $3,333 at the midpoints.
  • At 75%, a $2,500/kW combined cycle costs a third more than its nameplate figure, while a reactor at 96% is marked up 4%. Published benchmarks put a firming charge on wind and solar and none on gas.
  • The battery's cost per accredited kilowatt depends on who does the counting: about $1,125 at the low end in California, about $3,740 at the high end on MISO's lowest indicative summer value.

The energy price

The ranking turns on how hard the gas plant runs, more than on the price of gas.

$0$60$120$180$240Nuclear restart$47–71Combined cycle, quoted$56 at 90% · $115 at 30%Nuclear uprate$74–85Enhanced geothermal$85–103Small modular reactor$132–220New large reactor$157–210Levelised cost, $ per MWh (7.7%, pre-tax, no tax credit)
Levelised cost ranges at a 7.7% cost of capital, pre-tax, excluding tax credits and construction interest. The combined-cycle bar spans capacity factors from 90% to 30% at $2,500/kW; the other bars span each option's capital-cost range. The Power Bill estimates. Not illustrative.

At one financing rate (**7.7%**, pre-tax, no tax credit) a restart comes out at **$47–71/MWh** and a quoted combined cycle at **$56/MWh** if it runs at a 90% capacity factor, but **$115/MWh** at 30%. Enhanced geothermal is **$85–103** and new nuclear **$132–220**.

  • The gap between enhanced geothermal and new gas is $14.5/MWh in the base case. Moving the gas plant's capacity factor from 90% to 30% swings it by about $59/MWh.
  • Geothermal capital cost between $3,000 and $7,000/kW swings the same gap by $46; the past year's range of delivered gas prices, $2.59 to $6.57/MMBtu, by $26. Fuel is the third-largest input.
  • The method leaves out income tax, so it runs below Lazard's published figures, most for gas. The report shows the difference.

What is for sale

The two cheapest firm options are the two a new buyer cannot have before 2031.

Sorted by cost per accredited kilowatt the order is restart, combined cycle, uprate, geothermal, reactor. Sorted by the date a new buyer can have power, the restarts drop out and the combined cycle moves to the back.

  • Restarts: Crane, Palisades and Duane Arnold are all contracted.
  • Combined cycle: GE Vernova is taking reservations for 2031 deliveries, with 116 GW in backlog and reservations at mid-2026.
  • Enhanced geothermal: Cape Station's first phase reached first power on 24 September 2026; the 400 MW second phase is expected in 2028.
  • Three years of waiting at PJM's capacity price cap is worth about $356 per accredited kilowatt, roughly a tenth of a combined cycle's accredited capital cost (The Power Bill estimate).
The Ecliptic, Issue No. 013, cover analysis, drawn from The Power Bill CAL-0036 (October 8, 2026). Accreditation ratings, capital costs, turbine delivery dates and project milestones are as reported in that report's cited sources; every per-accredited-kilowatt and levelised-cost figure is a The Power Bill estimate on the method the report states (PJM 2029/30 class ratings; 7.7% cost of capital, pre-tax, no tax credit). Neither chart is illustrative.
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