From the EditorOur first issue traced the binding constraint migrating from the technology to the factory. Our second asked where the value lands when the headline number moves. This week the question is narrower and sharper: when the official number is not allowed to tell the truth, where does the price go? Our cover story finds it. PJM's capacity auction cleared at its administrative cap for a third consecutive year — while procuring nearly 7,000 megawatts less than its own reliability requirement — so the marginal price of a firm megawatt has relocated to the one venue still clearing freely: the gas-turbine order book, where three sold-out manufacturers are booking 2031 delivery and developers post six figures per megawatt, non-refundable, to hold a slot.
The same displacement runs through the issue. Transformers, not turbines, bind the grid. Firm power for data centers is being priced behind the meter rather than in the auction. Green ammonia now clears on offtake, not capacity. A lunar delivery cost curve turns out to measure capacity, not cost; a mining fleet's gigawatts turn out to measure nameplate, not delivered load. In each case the published figure and the transacted one have quietly parted company.
Every feature holds the same discipline: real numbers with units and vintage, an explicit model where one is warranted, and a clearly labeled view of our own. Twelve features and eight briefings, aligned onto one plane.
— The Ecliptic, Editorial Desk
Cover Story · Power & Energy · Joule
Joule — The Firm-Power Forward Curve — July 26, 2026
Reading the price of firmness off the turbine order book, since the capacity auction stopped saying it
If the capacity auction is capped, where is the marginal price of new firm power actually set? This flagship argues it has migrated to the gas-turbine order book and builds the forward curve to prove it. Using only cited inputs — GE Vernova's 116 GW backlog and ~20% non-refundable slot deposits, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi both booked into 2028, combined-cycle overnight capex of ~$2,000–2,500/kW (EIA AEO 2026, +~20%), and turbine pricing rising 10–20 points/yr — it annualizes new-entry cost into a $/MW-day "firm-power forward curve." The result: the bottom-up cost of a new firm megawatt rises from ~$898/MW-day for 2026 delivery to ~$1,271/MW-day for 2031 delivery (Gross CONE, UCAP basis; Joule estimate), while PJM's administrative cap sits flat at $325/MW-day. Two numbers PJM itself owns bracket the same wedge from below — Brattle's indicative Net CONE of $528/MW-day and PJM's own uncapped simulation of the 2028/29 auction at $555/MW-day, both roughly 60–70% above the cap. So the capacity auction reveals only 41–62% of the price of firmness, and a developer posting ≥$190,000/MW to hold a 2031 slot is the revealed-preference proof. The implication: firm-generation OEMs and merchant dispatchable fleets are pricing to a curve the regulated market has stopped printing.
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Flagship The Power Bill
The Power Bill — The Transformer Crunch: The Grid's Binding Constraint
Lead times of 128-160 weeks and prices up 77% have turned a box of steel and copper into the go/no-go gate on the electrification buildout — and the bottleneck is a single grain-oriented steel line, not capital.
What is the real binding constraint on the U.S. electrification and AI-data-center buildout — and what does relieving it cost? We decompose the grid-equipment supply chain and find the answer is not generation, capital, or even the interconnection queue: it is the large power transformer and its inputs.…
Flagship Joule
Joule — Green Ammonia's Offtake-First Turn — July 1, 2026
Contracted demand, not cheaper electrons, is closing the green premium
Green ammonia's binding constraint is not electrolyzer cost — it is the buyer. The IEA counts under 2 Mt/yr of binding offtake against a committed pipeline of roughly 4 Mt and an announced pipeline near 37 Mtpa of low-emission hydrogen for 2030; without a firm buyer, projects do…
Flagship Joule
Behind-the-Meter Firm Power for AI Data Centers: Engines vs. Gas Turbines vs. Fuel Cells
A techno-economic model of $/MWh, time-to-power, and carbon intensity under data-center duty cycles
AI data centers needing gigawatts of firm power faster than the grid can deliver are buying generation outright — but which machine? This report builds a transparent prime-power LCOE model for the four behind-the-meter options (reciprocating gas engines, simple-cycle and combined-cycle turbines, and solid oxide fuel cells) under…
Flagship Beyond Solar
Airborne Wind Leaves the Lab — But Only at the Small End
Tethered kites reach their first paying customers in island and off-grid markets; the physics says they should stay small
Can airborne wind energy (AWE) -- tethered kites that harvest stronger, steadier winds at 200-500 m -- finally earn revenue after a decade of crashed prototypes and Google's 2020 exit from Makani? This report assesses the state of the art against a transparent techno-economic frame. The finding: AWE…
Briefing Parameter
Parameter — Briefing — July 29, 2026
A four-lab release wave in three weeks, the largest open-weight model ever published, Alphabet's capex guidance up $15B, CoWoS sold out into 2027, memory's price surge cooling, and the EU's August 2 deadline
This Briefing covers six developments in artificial intelligence and the market that prices it: (1) four frontier labs shipped inside three weeks, and the release cadence itself is now the story; (2) Moonshot published Kimi K3 at 2.8 trillion parameters — the largest open-weight model released to date;…
Briefing Parameter
Parameter — Briefing — June 25, 2026
Seven threads across models, capital, silicon, research, agents, robots, and the new rule of the road
This Briefing covers seven developments in artificial intelligence: (1) Microsoft ships seven in-house MAI models co-designed with its own silicon, signaling a vertical-integration turn; (2) Anthropic 965B raise vaults it past OpenAI 852B, concentrating private AI capital at trillion-dollar scale; (3) AMD MI400 and Nvidia Rubin set up…
Flagship Delta-V
Delta-V — The Lunar Delivery Cost Curve Is a Capacity Illusion
Task-order prices per kilogram of lander capacity have fallen ~90% since 2019 — but NASA's science manifest is not growing fast enough to fill the landers it is buying, and the fix has concentrated the risk
Does commercial competition actually lower the price of landing mass on the Moon? This report rebuilds the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) price history from the awarded task orders and normalises each award against the published payload capacity of the lander that carries it. The result is a…
Flagship Delta-V
Cost to Orbit: The Heavy-Lift Reusability Race and the LEO Economy
What $/kg actually is in 2026, why the headline targets mislead, and where the value migrated
The cost to reach low Earth orbit fell roughly an order of magnitude in a decade — from the Space Shuttle's ~$54,500/kg to a Falcon 9 customer price near $2,700/kg — and the marginal cost SpaceX pays itself on a reused booster is lower still. This report asks…
Flagship Engines of Tomorrow
Nuclear Propulsion for Space: NTP and NEP from Ground Test to Flight
The physics is sound, the flagship demo is cancelled, and cheap launch just changed the economics
Nuclear thermal propulsion roughly doubles the specific impulse of the best chemical rocket — ~900 s versus ~450 s — and nuclear electric propulsion reaches thousands of seconds at low thrust, which is why both have been studied for fast crewed Mars transit for sixty years. This report…
Flagship Chain Reaction
Stablecoins After the GENIUS Act
The economics of a regulated, interest-banned, Treasury-backed dollar
Does federal legalization make stablecoins a bigger or merely a more durable business? This report builds a transparent reserve-income model for the US payment-stablecoin market after the GENIUS Act, triangulating issuer disclosures (Circle Q1 2026, Tether Q1 2026 BDO attestation), regulator filings, and on-chain data. The headline finding:…
Briefing Chain Reaction
Chain Reaction — The Delivered-Capacity Scorecard: What the Miners' 7.5 Gigawatts Actually Powers Today — July 28, 2026
One company discloses energized megawatts; the rest disclose contract value — and the hashrate vacuum SAT-0009 predicted has arrived
This Briefing answers the delivered-capacity question SAT-0009 left open, and finds the answer is mostly missing on purpose. Six topics: (1) across roughly 7.5 GW and USD 150 billion of announced miner AI commitments, exactly one operator publishes an energized-megawatt figure against its contracted one; (2) Hut 8…
The Power Bill · 2026-07-29The Power Bill — Briefing — July 29, 2026
1. FERC tells NERC to write reliability rules for "computational loads" 2. GE Vernova's turbine book jumps 16 GW in one quarter — and is now selling 2031 3. DOE's emergency-order fleet: 4.4 GW…
Joule · 2026-07-29Joule — Briefing — July 29, 2026
1. Transmission's value is at the seams; 98% of the build happens inside them 2. The largest storage asset going up in America this year is not a battery 3. China's solar capex cycle…
Beyond Solar · 2026-07-29Beyond Solar — Who Is Actually Buying the 8–24 Hour Duration Band
Builds on HEL-0014 — that briefing opened the thread "CO₂ / thermodynamic LDES vs iron-air vs lithium for the 10–24 h duration band the hyperscalers are now buying." This report answers it: the band…
The Reality Gap · 2026-07-28The Reality Gap — Briefing — July 28, 2026
1. A harder benchmark drops the best AI agent from near-saturation to one task in five 2. Quantinuum braids *and* fuses anyons — the first universal topological gate set 3. Waymo adds four driverless…
Engines of Tomorrow · 2026-07-28Engines of Tomorrow — The Thermal Wall: Heat, Not Thrust, Is Gating Reusable Hypersonics — July 28, 2026
Builds on MACH-0008 — that report named actively cooled combustor endurance and UHTC leading-edge oxidation life as the two constraints on reusable hypersonic flight. Twelve weeks on, both have moved: the combustor endurance number…
The Gas Gauge · 2026-07-26The Gas Gauge Briefing — The Atlantic Splits — July 26, 2026
1. TTF near €63 — Europe reprices on Gulf risk, heat and a storage target it may miss 2. The other side of the split: US inventories 6% above normal, Henry Hub under $3.70…
Star Power · 2026-07-26Star Power Briefing — Fusion Goes Public — July 26, 2026
1. A record $4.48bn year still leaves fusion about nine-tenths unfunded 2. General Fusion lists — and imports the quarterly clock into a decade problem 3. Proxima's €411m makes the stellarator Europe's champion —…
Beyond Solar · 2026-07-19Beyond Solar — Briefing — July 19, 2026
1. **A CO₂ battery becomes the hyperscaler's LDES** — Energy Dome's 200 MWh projects land Google across three continents 2. **A 95%-efficient electrolyzer books its first order** — and why efficiency was never green…